Search results for "Disease surveillance"
showing 10 items of 10 documents
A Bayesian unified framework for risk estimation and cluster identification in small area health data analysis.
2020
Many statistical models have been proposed to analyse small area disease data with the aim of describing spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously allows for risk estimation and cluster identification. Our model formulation assumes that there is an unknown number of risk classes and small areas are assigned to a risk class by means of independent allocation variables. Therefore, areas within each cluster are assumed to share a common risk but they may be geographically separated. The posterior distribution of the parameter representing the number of risk classes is estimated using a novel procedure that combines its prior …
A model for rapid, active surveillance for medically-attended acute gastroenteritis within an integrated health care delivery system
2018
Background This study presents a novel methodology for estimating all-age, population-based incidence rates of norovirus and other pathogens that contribute to acute gastroenteritis in the United States using an integrated healthcare delivery system as a surveillance platform. Methods All cases of medically attended acute gastroenteritis within the delivery system were identified from April 1, 2014 through September 30, 2016. A sample of these eligible patients were selected to participate in two phone-based surveys and to self-collect a stool sample for laboratory testing. To ascertain household transmission patterns, information on household members with acute gastroenteritis was gathered…
Acute Gastroenteritis and Campylobacteriosis in Swiss primary care: the viewpoint of general practitioners
2016
Acute gastroenteritis (AG) is frequently caused by infectious intestinal diseases (IID) including food- and waterborne pathogens of public health importance. Among these pathogens, Campylobacter spp. plays a major role. Many European countries monitor selected IIDs within disease surveillance systems. In Switzerland, the information on IIDs is restricted to limited surveillance data, while no data is available for AG. We conducted a qualitative study among Swiss general practitioners (GPs) to investigate the case management of AG and campylobacteriosis patients, the associated disease burden and the determinants leading to registration in the National Notification System for Infectious Dise…
Prospective surveillance of multivariate spatial disease data
2012
Surveillance systems are often focused on more than one disease within a predefined area. On those occasions when outbreaks of disease are likely to be correlated, the use of multivariate surveillance techniques integrating information from multiple diseases allows us to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of outbreak detection. In this article, we present an extension of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate to monitor multivariate spatial disease data. The proposed surveillance technique, which is defined for each small area and time period as the conditional predictive distribution of those counts of disease higher than expected given the data observed up to the previous t…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
Administration of Triclabendazole Is Safe and Effective in Controlling Fascioliasis in an Endemic Community of the Bolivian Altiplano
2012
Background Emergence of human fascioliasis prompted a worldwide control initiative including a pilot study in a few countries. Two hyperendemic areas were chosen: Huacullani, Northern Altiplano, Bolivia, representing the Altiplanic transmission pattern with high prevalences and intensities; Cajamarca valley, Peru, representing the valley pattern with high prevalences but low intensities. Coprological sample collection, transport and study procedures were analyzed to improve individual diagnosis and subsequent treatments and surveillance activities. Therefore, a coproantigen-detection technique (MM3-COPRO ELISA) was evaluated, using classical techniques for egg detection for comparison. Meth…
The Potential Role of Direct and Indirect Contacts on Infection Spread in Dairy Farm Networks.
2017
Animals’ exchanges are considered the most effective route of between-farm infectious disease transmission. However, despite being often overlooked, the infection spread due to contaminated equipment, vehicles, or personnel proved to be important for several livestock epidemics. This study investigated the role of indirect contacts in a potential infection spread in the dairy farm network of the Province of Parma (Northern Italy). We built between-farm contact networks using data on cattle exchange (direct contacts), and on-farm visits by veterinarians (indirect contacts). We compared the features of the contact structures by using measures on static and temporal networks. We assessed the d…
Integration of animal health and public health surveillance sources to exhaustively inform the risk of zoonosis: An application to echinococcosis in …
2020
The analysis of zoonotic disease risk requires the consideration of both human and animal geo-referenced disease incidence data. Here we show an application of joint Bayesian analyses to the study of echinococcosis granulosus (EG) in the province of Rio Negro, Argentina. We focus on merging passive and active surveillance data sources of animal and human EG cases using joint Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models. While similar spatial clustering and temporal trending was apparent, there appears to be limited lagged dependence between animal and human outcomes. Beyond the data quality issues relating to missingness at different times, we were able to identify relations between dog and …
Two-level resolution of relative risk of dengue disease in a hyperendemic city of Colombia.
2018
Risk maps of dengue disease offer to the public health officers a tool to model disease risk in space and time. We analyzed the geographical distribution of relative incidence risk of dengue disease in a high incidence city from Colombia, and its evolution in time during the period January 2009—December 2015, identifying regional effects at different levels of spatial aggregations. Cases of dengue disease were geocoded and spatially allocated to census sectors, and temporally aggregated by epidemiological periods. The census sectors are nested in administrative divisions defined as communes, configuring two levels of spatial aggregation for the dengue cases. Spatio-temporal models including…
Influenza like Illness among Medical Residents Anticipates Influenza Diffusion in General Population: Data from a National Survey among Italian Medic…
2016
The aim of this multicentre study was to assess incidence of influenza like illness (ILI) among Italian medical residents (MRs) during 2011±2012 influenza season, to detect variables associated with ILI and to compare estimated ILI incidence among MRs and general population. A cross-sectional survey was carried out throughout an anonymous questionnaire administered to all MRs attending the post-graduate medical schools of 18 Italian Universities. At the same time an analysis of the ILI incidence in the Italian general population was conducted through the Italian Influenza Surveillance Network. Of a total of 2,506 MRs, 1,191 (47.5%) reported at least one ILI episode. A higher proportion of I…